More People Are Looking to Move Out of Virginia According to Virginia REALTORS^®

By Abel Opoku-Adjei
Research Associate, Virginia REALTORS^®

Each month, the Virginia REALTORS^® Confidence Survey gathers insights from REALTORS^® on local housing markets based on their experiences with real estate transactions in the prior month. This information provides a real-time look at housing market conditions. This month’s Confidence Survey was conducted between February 22nd and February 29th, 2024, and reflects housing market conditions in Virginia in February 2024. A total of 484 Virginia REALTORS^® members responded to the survey, including 318 who had participated in a home sales transaction in the last 29 days.

Current Market Conditions

Buyers

According to Virginia REALTORS^®, buyer activity rose in February compared to January. The Buyer Activity Index for February was 49, an increase from 38 the previous month. Roughly 29% of REALTORS^® rated the level of buyer activity in their local markets as “high” or “very high” in February, and approximately 32% of REALTORS^® rated buyer activity in their local market as “low” or “very low”.

In Virginia, around 35% of buyers in February were first-time home buyers, a 9% increase from January, According to REALTORS^®. Approximately 23% of respondents accepted an all-cash purchase in February, unchanged from a month ago. About 21% of home sales in February were non-primary residence sales (e.g., rental property, second home, vacation home), 2% more than in January.

Recent transactions received an average of 2.9 offers in February, slightly increasing from 2.1 in January. About 42% of respondents in February stated that bids came in above the listing price, which is 11% higher than in January.

Sellers

Seller activity in February increased from January, according to Virginia REALTORS^®. The Seller Activity Index in February was 18, a 3% jump from January. Virtually 5% of REALTORS^® reported that seller activity was “high to very high” in their local market, and 69% of respondents said seller activity was “low to very low” in February.

Obstacles

Though sales activity seemed to rise according to most REALTORS^®, many of their clients faced similar challenges in the February market that hindered them or allowed them to buy or sell their homes. In the survey, we asked Virginia REALTORS^® about the main obstacles their clients are facing.

Buyers

Throughout February, the average 30-year mortgage rate has risen to nearly 7%. High rates and strict inventory have made it hard for potential buyers to enter the market. Nearly 18% of Virginia REALTORS^® stated that rising interest rates were their buyer clients’ most significant obstacle in February, 1% higher than last month. Around 39% of Virginia REALTORS^® noted that the lack of housing inventory in the state was stopping their buyers from purchasing a home in February, down 1% compared to January. There’s a lot of dispute if the Federal Reserve will drop rates in March. If interest rates decline, it will attract many people back into the market in time for the spring season.

Sellers

Roughly 15% of Virginia REALTORS^® stated that their seller clients were unwilling to lose their low-interest rate for a higher rate in the February market, down 5% from January. Around 18% of Virginia REALTORS^® noted that they were unwilling to give up their low-interest rates for today’s mortgage rates, unchanged from last month. About 12% of REALTORS^® said that rising home prices were stopping sellers from selling their homes because they were worried that they would not get the same type/size of a home elsewhere in their price range, up 2% from the previous month. Most potential sellers in Virginia faced a combination of these obstacles in February, according to REALTORS^®.

Reasons For Selling

Results From Virginia REALTORS^® Confidence Survey

We asked Virginia REALTORS^® what was the most common reason their seller clients wanted to sell their homes in the last 29 days of February. According to Virginia REALTORS®, many stated that their seller clients were on the market because they were moving out of state. This has been the leading reason since we started recording the data in August 2023. Roughly 27% of clients wanted to sell their homes because they were moving somewhere outside of the commonwealth. Nearly 13% of people were looking to relocate somewhere else in Virginia in February. Almost 18% were looking to downsize within the same area they live in, and 12% were looking for a bigger house within the same locality. There were about 7% of sellers were looking to sell their investment property in February.

Market Outlook

Confidence in buyer activity increased in February compared to January, according to REALTORS^® in Virginia. This index gauges how REALTORS^® think the market will perform in the following three months. The three-month buyer activity index was 63 in February, which is 2% higher than last month. About 41% of respondents indicated that they think buyer activity would be strong in the next three months in their local markets, and 15% stated that they believed buyer activity would drop in the next three months.

The Seller Activity Index: 3-Month Outlook increased from January to February. The Seller Activity Index in February was 38, higher than in January at 36. Roughly 13% of Virginia REALTORS^® reported that they think seller activity will be strong in three months, and 38% said it would be low.

Approximately 55% of Virginia REALTORS^® responding to the survey stated that prices will increase within the next three months. About 15% of REALTORS^® believe that home prices will decrease within the next three months. Around 26% of respondents to the survey indicated that prices would remain the same for the next three months.

Virginia REALTORS^® Confidence Survey: 2024 Highlights

^A An index greater than 50 indicates more respondents reported the level of activity as “high to very high” than reported the level of activity as “low to very low.”

^B An index greater than 50 indicates more respondents expect future activity to be “strong” than expected future activity to be “weak.”

A note about surveys: This is not a randomized sample survey of Virginia REALTORS® members. However, the number of responses and the geographic coverage of respondents make it possible to draw conclusions about the opinions and expectations of Virginia REALTORS®. These statistics from this survey have a margin of error of +/- 4.45%.

Responses to our surveys are confidential. We do not look at individual responses but rather report data in the aggregate.

For more information about Virginia’s housing market, check out our most recent home sales report, local housing market data, or Facebook Live.