REALTOR® Confidence Survey Results: Jan 25 – Jan 30, 2023

Buyer and Seller Outlook Goes Up as the Market Continues to Adjust

By Dominique Fair – Research Associate, Virginia REALTORS®

Each month, the Virginia REALTORS® Confidence Survey gathers insights from REALTORS® on local housing markets based on their experiences with real estate transactions in the prior month. This information provides a real-time look at housing market conditions. This month’s Confidence Survey was conducted between January 25, 2023 and January 30, 2023, and reflects housing market conditions in Virginia in January 2023. A total of 562 Virginia REALTORS® members responded to the survey, including 389 who had participated in a home sales transaction in the prior 30 days.

Current Market Conditions

Buyers

According to Virginia REALTORS®, buyer activity increased in January. The Buyer Activity index for the month was 39, jumping from 24 in December. Roughly 17% of REALTORS® rated the level of buyer activity in their local markets as “high” or “very high” in January, while 38% of REALTORS® rated buyer activity as “low” or “very low” in their local market.

Current Housing Market Conditions

Around 32% of buyers in January were first-time homebuyers, according to survey respondents, up 4% from last month. About 19% of purchases in January were all-cash purchases, down from 22% in December. In January, there were about 18% of non-primary residence sales (e.g., rental property, second home, vacation home), a decrease from 22% last month.

The average number of offers remained unchanged from last month according to REALTORS® responding to this month’s survey. Recent transactions received an average of 1.3 offers in January. About 24% of respondents indicated that offers were coming in above the list price in January, down from 26% in December.

Sellers

Seller activity slightly increased in January, according to Virginia REALTORS®. In January, the Seller Activity Index was 19, up from 17 in December. Roughly 5% of respondents reported that seller activity was “high to very high” in their local market, an increase from last month when it was 2%. About 68% of REALTORS® reported that seller activity was “low to very low,” unchanged from December.

Market Outlook

Confidence in future home buyer activity increased this month compared to last month. This index gauges how REALTORS® think the market will be performing in three months’ time. The index rose to 52 in January, up from 38 in December. Roughly 28% of respondents indicated that they thought buyer activity in three months would be strong in their local markets, up from 12% last month.

The Seller Activity Index: 3-Month Outlook grew in January. The index was 37 this month, rising from 33 in December. Around 12% of Virginia REALTORS® reported that they think seller activity will be strong in three months, an increase from last month which was 7%.

Housing Market Outlook

The share of survey respondents who expect prices to rise in their local markets in the next three months went up in January. About 22% of Virginia REALTORS® responding to the survey stated that they believed prices will begin to rise. The largest share, 44% of respondents, believe that home prices will fall in the next three months. Another 33% of respondents expected prices to remain unchanged.

 

Virginia REALTORS® Confidence Survey: 2022 Highlights

Key Indicators

Jan

2022

Feb

2022

Mar

2022

Apr

2022

May

2022

June

2022

July

2022

Aug

2022

Sep

2022

Oct

2022

Nov

2022

Dec

2022

Jan

2023
Buyer Activity Indexa 76 78 84 71 56 48 43 39 29 23 21 24 39
Seller Activity Indexa 20 19 20 26 33 31 33 29 27 21 20 17 19
Buyer Activity Index: 3-Month Outlookb 83 77 75 61 45 39 41 42 25 22 30 38 52
Seller Activity Index: 3-Month Outlookb 43 40 40 41 42 42 40 39 30 26 30 33 37
Current Market Conditions                          
First-time Homebuyers, as a Percent of All Sales 29 32 33 30 30 27 29 28 32 24 24 28 32
Cash Sales, as a Percent of All Sales 18 18 18 21 16 16 19 22 19 21 28 22 19
Sales as Non-Primary Residence, as a Percent of All Sales 21 14 16 19 15 15 17 18 18 20 22 22 18
Average Number of Offers, Most Recent Transaction 4.1 6.3 6.6 5.3 2.9 3.1 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.3
Market Outlook                          
Percent of Respondents Who Expect Strong Buyer Activity in 3 Months 70 63 59 36 18 13 11 12 6 6 8 12 28
Percent of Respondents Who Expect Strong Seller Activity in 3 Months 19 20 18 16 14 12 9 9 6 3 4 7 12
Percent of Respondents Who Expect Prices to Rise in 3 Months 64 69 68 43 32 19 18 14 9 7 9 14 22
Percent of Respondents Who Expect Prices to Fall in 3 Months 7 8 10 25 33 49 53 51 66 72 67 55 44
Percent of Respondents Who Expect Prices to Remain Unchanged in 3 Months 26 21 18 28 32 30 26 30 23 20 22 29 33

 

A An index greater than 50 indicates more respondents reported the level of activity as “high to very high” than reported the level of activity as “low to very low.”

B An index greater than 50 indicates more respondents expect future activity to be “strong” than expect future activity to be “weak”.

A note about surveys: This is not a randomized sample survey of Virginia REALTORS® members. However, the number of responses and the geographic coverage of respondents make it possible to draw conclusions about the opinions and expectations of Virginia REALTORS®. These statistics from this survey have a margin of error of +/- 4.1%.

Responses to our surveys are confidential. We do not look at individual responses but rather report data in the aggregate.

For more information about Virginia’s housing market, check out our most recent home sales report, local housing market data, or Facebook Live.

 

 

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