Virginia Sees Slowest April Housing Market in More than a Decade
May 23, 2023 - Robin Spensieri
Welcome Virginia REALTORS®
The Virginia REALTORS® Confidence Survey gathers information from REALTORS® on local housing markets based on their experiences with real estate transactions in the prior month. This month’s Confidence Survey was conducted between November 30 and December 5, 2021, and reflects housing market conditions in Virginia in November 2021. A total of 786 Virginia REALTORS® members responded to the survey, including 663 who had participated in a home sales transaction in the prior 30 days.
|Key Indicators||July 2021||
|Buyer Activity Indexa||77||68||66||66||66|
|Seller Activity Indexa||41||38||35||36||30|
|Buyer Activity Index: 3-Month Outlookb||68||63||59||58||72|
|Seller Activity Index: 3-Month Outlookb||50||47||42||41||49|
|Current Market Conditions|
|First-time Homebuyers, as a Percent of All Sales||31||33||32||29||33|
|Cash Sales, as a Percent of All Sales||16||18||20||18||18|
|Sales as Non-Primary Residence, as a Percent of All Sales||16||16||16||16||17|
|Average Number of Offers, Most Recent Transaction||3.5||3.2||3.1||2.4||2.9|
|Percent of Respondents Who Expect Strong Buyer Activity in 3 Months||44||35||28||29||50|
|Percent of Respondents Who Expect Strong Seller Activity in 3 Months||24||16||11||12||22|
|Percent of Respondents Who Expect Prices to Rise in 3 Months||50||44||37||42||49|
|Percent of Respondents Who Expect Prices to Fall in 3 Months||20||24||27||27||17|
|Percent of Respondents Who Expect Prices to Remain Unchanged in 3 Months||27||29||35||31||31|
a An index greater than 50 indicates more respondents reported the level of activity as “high to very high” than reported the level of activity as “low to very low.”
b An index greater than 50 indicates more respondents expect future activity to be “strong” than expect future activity to be “weak”.
In November, the Virginia REALTORS® Buyer Activity index was unchanged from where it was in September and October. About 43% of REALTORS® rated the level of buyer activity in their local market as “high to very high” in November, the same share as in October. About 45% reported that the level of buyer activity in the market was “average” in November, and 10% reported local buyer activity as “low to very low.”
According to survey respondents, the share of first-time buyers increased in November. REALTORS® reported that 33% of buyers in November were first-time home buyers, up from 29% in October. About 18% of purchases in November were all-cash purchases, about the same as in October. In November, REALTORS® reported that 17% of buyers purchased a home for a non-primary residence use (e.g., rental property, second home, vacation home).
According to Virginia REALTORS®, seller activity declined in November. The Seller Activity Index was 30 in November down from 36 in October. Only 12% of respondents reported that seller activity was “high to very high” in their local market in November. More than half of respondents (52%) reported that seller activity was “low to very low”, which is up significantly from October when 43% stated that seller activity was “low to very low.”
Compared to the last few months, REALTORS® reported feeling much more confident in where the market is headed. In fact, the outlook for buyer activity hit a five-month high and the outlook for seller activity was nearly as strong as it has been since the REALTOR® Confidence Survey has been conducted.
The Buyer Activity Index: 3-Month Outlook was 72 in November, up 14 points from October and higher than at any point since the survey began in July. Half of all REALTORS® responding to the survey indicated that they thought buyer activity would be strong in their local market in three months. This share is up dramatically from October when only 28% of respondents reported the anticipated strong buyer activity in three months.
The Seller Activity Index: 3-Month Outlook surged in November to 49, up from 42 in October and just one point shy of the July 2021 high. About 22% of Virginia REALTORS® reported that they think seller activity will be strong in three months, which is up from 12% last month. However, a similar share (23%) of respondents are still less optimistic, reporting that they expect seller activity to be weak in three months.
Survey respondents were very optimistic about price growth. Nearly half (49%) of November’s survey respondents expect prices to rise in their local markets, which is up from 42% from October. The vast majority of those projecting price growth expect prices to rise between one and five percent annually. Fewer REALTORS® say they expect prices to fall. Only 17% of REALTORS® responding to the November survey stated that they thought prices would fall over the next three months, down from 27% in October.
A note about surveys: This is not a randomized sample survey of Virginia REALTORS® members. However, the number of responses and the geographic coverage of respondents make it possible to draw conclusions about the opinions and expectations of Virginia REALTORS®. These statistics from this survey have a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.
Responses to our surveys are confidential. We do not look at individual responses but rather report data in the aggregate.
For more information about Virginia’s housing market, check out our most recent home sales report, local housing market data, or Facebook Live.
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