REALTORS^® in Virginia are Optimistic About Future Buyer & Seller Activity as Retirees Are Looking to Sell Their Home

By Abel Opoku-Adjei
Research Associate, Virginia REALTORS^®

Each month, the Virginia REALTORS^® Confidence Survey gathers important information from REALTORS^® on local housing markets based on their experiences with real estate transactions in the prior month. This data provides a real-time look at housing market conditions. This month’s Confidence Survey was conducted between November 25th and December 5th, 2024, and reflects housing market conditions in Virginia in November 2024. A total of 401 Virginia REALTORS^® members responded to the survey, including 286 who participated in a home sales transaction in the past month.

Current Market Conditions

Buyers

Results from the survey indicated that buyer activity fell from October to November. The Buyer Activity Index in November was 32, down five from last month. Approximately 10% of REALTORS^® rated the level of buyer activity in their local markets as “high” or “very high” in November, and 45% of REALTORS^® rated buyer activity in their local market as “low” or “very low”.

Results From Virginia REALTORS^® Confidence Survey

Regarding their most recent transaction, 31% of survey respondents said the transaction involved a first-time home buyer, a 4% increase compared to October. Around 25% of recent home sales in November were all-cash purchases, a 3% increase from October. Around 19% of REALTORS^® stated their recent transaction in November involved a non-primary residence (e.g., rental property, second home, vacation home), down one from the prior month.

Recent transactions received an average of 1.8 offers in November, a decrease from 2.1 offers in October. Nearly 31% of REALTORS^® stated that bids in November came in above the listing price, a 2% increase compared to October.

Sellers

Seller activity decreased from October to November, according to REALTORS^® in Virginia. The Seller Activity Index in November was 23, down from 28 in October. About 4% of REALTORS^® reported that seller activity was “high to very high” in their local market, and 58% of respondents said seller activity was “low to very low.”

Obstacles

Buyers

Approximately 35% of survey respondents indicated that the lack of available housing in their local market was a significant issue for their clients. Additionally, 21% reported that rising mortgage rates were the primary reason their clients were unable to purchase a home in November. Many potential buyers are facing a combination of these challenges. 30-year fixed mortgage rates in November were approaching 7%, which deterred many buyers, especially given that home prices remain very high.

Results From Virginia REALTORS^® Confidence Survey

Sellers

In the survey, nearly 18% of Virginia REALTORS^® reported that their seller clients were hesitant to move in November due to concerns about losing their low interest rates. About 13% pointed out that the lack of housing options in Virginia was also influencing their sellers’ willingness to relocate. Additionally, approximately 11% of REALTORS^® indicated that rising home prices were the main reason their clients were reluctant to sell, as they feared they would not be able to find an affordable replacement home. Many homeowners who secured low rates during the pandemic have contributed to the tightening of inventory in the market.

Results From Virginia REALTORS^® Confidence Survey

Pending Sales Activity

In our recent October report, Virginia recorded 8,054 pending sales, which is 1,198 more than a year ago, reflecting a 17.5% increase. While pending sales generally close successfully, there are common reasons why some do not. According to our survey, 266 realtors reported that one or more of their seller clients had a purchase agreement, and 63 of those agreements did not close as intended.

We asked REALTORS^® about the most common reasons causing the pending sale to fall through in November. About 56% of respondents indicated that inspection issues were the primary reason the purchase agreement failed. Around 21% noted that the buyer’s mortgage application was not approved. Roughly 13% reported that the buyer’s previous home could not sell in time to finalize the purchase agreement. Furthermore, 4% of REALTORS^® mentioned that the buyer lost their job or encountered financial difficulties that jeopardized mortgage approval. Lastly, about 10% indicated that a low appraisal hindered the deal from closing.

Reasons For Selling

Results From Virginia REALTORS^® Confidence Survey

In November, REALTORS^® in Virginia revealed that 18% reported their seller clients were planning to move out of the state. About 14% indicated that clients were considering relocating to a different area within Virginia. Almost 23% of REALTORS^® noted that their clients were looking to downsize within their current location, while 15% were seeking larger homes in the same area. Lastly, around 7% mentioned that their clients were looking to sell a second home in November. Many REALTORS^® who selected “other” have observed a trend among recently retired homeowners wanting to sell their homes. This trend is generating increased optimism about the future of the housing market, particularly as more retirees decide to list their properties.

Market Outlook

Results From Virginia REALTORS® Confidence Survey

Confidence in the buyer outlook increased from the prior month, according to Virginia REALTORS^®. This index measures REALTORS^®’ expectations for market performance over the next three months. In November, the three-month buyer activity index stood at 52, up from 49 in October. Approximately 23% of respondents believe that buyer activity will increase in their local markets within the next three months, while 18% anticipate a decline in buyer activity.

The Seller Activity Index (3-Month Outlook) increased from October to November, with the index rising from 41 in October to 47 in November. Roughly 15% of Virginia REALTORS® expect seller activity to improve in three months, while 21% believe it will decrease.

Lastly, about 40% of the Virginia REALTORS^® who took part in the survey expect home prices to increase in the next three months. Meanwhile, nearly 21% anticipate that prices will decline between December and February, and 33% believe prices will remain stable.

Virginia REALTORS^® Confidence Survey: 2024 Highlights

 ^A An index greater than 50 indicates more respondents reported the level of activity as “high to very high” than reported the level of activity as “low to very low.”

^B An index greater than 50 indicates more respondents expect future activity to be “strong” than expected future activity to be “weak.”

A note about surveys: This is not a randomized sample survey of Virginia REALTORS^® members. However, the number of responses and the geographic coverage of respondents make it possible to draw conclusions about the opinions and expectations of Virginia REALTORS^®. The statistics from this survey have a margin of error of +/- 3.88%.

Responses to our surveys are confidential. We do not look at individual responses but rather report data in the aggregate.

For more information about Virginia’s housing market, check out our most recent home sales report, local housing market data.