By Dominique Fair
Research Associate, Virginia REALTORS^®

Each month, the Virginia REALTORS^® Confidence Survey gathers insights from REALTORS^® on local housing markets based on their experiences with real estate transactions in the prior month. This information provides a real-time look at housing market conditions. This month’s Confidence Survey was conducted between November 22 and November 28, 2022, and reflects housing market conditions in Virginia in November 2022. A total of 540 Virginia REALTORS^® members responded to the survey, including 376 who had participated in a home sales transaction in the prior 30 days.

Current Market Conditions

Buyers

According to Virginia REALTORS^®, buyer activity continued to drop in November. The Buyer Activity Index for the month was 21, which is down from 23 in October, the lowest level since we began tracking this information in July 2021. Just 6% of REALTORS^® rated the level of buyer activity in their local markets as “high” or “very high” in November, while roughly 64% of REALTORS^® rated buyer activity as “low” or “very low” in their local market.

Around 24% of buyers in November were first-time homebuyers, according to survey respondents, remaining unchanged from the previous month. About 28% of purchases in November were all cash-purchases, an increase of seven percent from October. In November there were about 22% of non-primary residence sales (e.g., rental property, second home, vacation home), up 2% from last month.

The average number of offers decreased in November compared to October, according to REALTORS^® responding to this month’s survey. Recent transactions received an average of 1.5 offers in November, down from 1.8 last month. About 28% of respondents indicated that offers were coming in above the list price this month, down from 29% in October.

Sellers

Seller activity continued to decline in November, according to Virginia REALTORS^®. In November, the Seller Activity Index was 20, down from 21 in October. Roughly 3% of respondents reported that seller activity was “high to very high” in their local market, which is unchanged from last month. About 62% of REALTORS^® reported that seller activity was “low to very low,” increasing from 60% in October.

Market Outlook

Confidence in future home buyer activity increased this month compared to last month. This index gauges how REALTORS^® think the market will be performing in three months’ time. The index rose to 30 in November, up from 22 in October. Just 8% of respondents indicated that they thought buyer activity in three months would be strong in their local markets. This share is up 2% from the previous month.

The Seller Activity Index: 3-Month Outlook increased in November. The index was 30 this month, rising from 26 in October. Only 4% of Virginia REALTORS^® reported that they think seller activity will be strong in three months, increasing by 1% from a month ago.

The share of survey respondents who expect prices to rise in their local markets in the next three months went up in November. About 9% of Virginia REALTORS^® responding to the survey stated that they believed prices will begin to rise. The largest share, 67% of respondents, believe that home prices will fall in the next three months. Another 22% of respondents expected prices to remain unchanged.

Virginia REALTORS^® Confidence Survey: 2022 Highlights

^A An index greater than 50 indicates more respondents reported the level of activity as “high to very high” than reported the level of activity as “low to very low.”

^B An index greater than 50 indicates more respondents expect future activity to be “strong” than expect future activity to be “weak”.

A note about surveys: This is not a randomized sample survey of Virginia REALTORS^® members. However, the number of responses and the geographic coverage of respondents make it possible to draw conclusions about the opinions and expectations of Virginia REALTORS^®. These statistics from this survey have a margin of error of +/- 4.2%.

Responses to our surveys are confidential. We do not look at individual responses but rather report data in the aggregate.

For more information about Virginia’s housing market, check out our most recent home sales report, local housing market data, or Facebook Live.