By Dominique Fair
Research Associate, Virginia REALTORS^®

Each month, the Virginia REALTORS^® Confidence Survey gathers insights from REALTORS^® on local housing markets based on their experiences with real estate transactions in the prior month. This information provides a real-time look at housing market conditions. This month’s Confidence Survey was conducted between September 27 and October 2, 2022, and reflects housing market conditions in Virginia in September 2022. A total of 879 Virginia REALTORS^® members responded to the survey, including 687 who had participated in a home sales transaction in the prior 30 days.

Current Market Conditions

Buyers

According to Virginia REALTORS®, buyer activity dropped in September. The Buyer Activity Index for the month was 29, down from 39 in August, the lowest level since we began tracking this information in July 2021. Just 10% of REALTORS® rated the level of buyer activity in their local markets as “high” or “very high” in September, which is down from 13% in August.

Around 32% of buyers in September were first-time buyers, according to survey respondents, which is 4% higher than last month. About 19% of purchases in September were all cash-purchases, down 3% from a month ago. In September there were about 18% of non-primary residence sales (e.g., rental property, second home, vacation home), unchanged from the previous month.

The average number of offers stayed the same according to REALTORS® responding to this month’s survey. Recent transactions received an average of 1.7 offers in September. About 32% of respondents indicated that offers were coming in above the list price.

Sellers

Seller activity continued to decline in September, according to Virginia REALTORS®. In September, the Seller Activity Index was 27, down from 29 in August. Just 5% of respondents reported that seller activity was “high to very high” in their local market. About 52% of REALTORS® reported that seller activity was “low to very low”.

Market Outlook

Confidence in future home buyer activity fell significantly from last month. This index gauges how REALTORS® think the market will be performing in three months’ time. The index fell to 25 in September, down from 42 in August. Only 6% of respondents indicated that they thought buyer activity in three months would be strong in their local markets. This share dropped by half of what it was in August.

The Seller Activity Index: 3-Month Outlook dropped in September. The index was 30 this month, a sharp decline from 39 in August. Only 6% of Virginia REALTORS^® reported that they think seller activity will be strong in three months, down three percent from a month ago.

The share of survey respondents who expect prices to rise in their local markets in the next three months dropped again to the lowest level since we began tracking the survey in July 2021. About 9% of Virginia REALTORS^® responding to the survey stated that they believed prices will begin to rise. The largest share, 66% of respondents, believe that home prices will fall in three months. Another 23% of respondents expected prices to remain unchanged.

Virginia REALTORS^® Confidence Survey: 2022 Highlights

^A An index greater than 50 indicates more respondents reported the level of activity as “high to very high” than reported the level of activity as “low to very low.”

^B An index greater than 50 indicates more respondents expect future activity to be “strong” than expect future activity to be “weak”.

A note about surveys: This is not a randomized sample survey of Virginia REALTORS^® members. However, the number of responses and the geographic coverage of respondents make it possible to draw conclusions about the opinions and expectations of Virginia REALTORS^®. These statistics from this survey have a margin of error of +/- 3.3%.

Responses to our surveys are confidential. We do not look at individual responses but rather report data in the aggregate.

For more information about Virginia’s housing market, check out our most recent home sales report, local housing market data, or Facebook Live.