Higher Mortgage Rates May Keep Buyers Out of the Market, According to REALTORS^® 

By Abel Opoku-Adjei 

Research Associate, Virginia REALTORS^® 

Each month, the Virginia REALTORS^® Confidence Survey gathers important information from REALTORS^® on local housing markets based on their experiences with real estate transactions in the prior month. This data provides a real-time look at housing market conditions. This month’s Confidence Survey was conducted between September 23rd, 2026, and September 30th, 2026, and reflects Virginia’s housing market conditions in September 2026. A total of 511 Virginia REALTORS^® members responded to the survey, including 373 who participated in a home sales transaction in the past month. 

Current Market Conditions 

Buyers  

According to respondents, the September survey report showed buyer activity dropping again from the previous month. The buyer activity index fell to 24 in September, down from 28 in August. About 6% of respondents described buyer activity in their local markets as “high” or “very high,” while 59% rated it “low” or “very low.” 

In September, roughly 32% of respondents said their most recent transaction involved a first-time home buyer, up from 26% in August. About 18% completed all-cash deals, a 5% decrease from 23% in August. Approximately 17% of REALTORS^® handled transactions involving non-primary residences, such as rentals, second homes, or vacation properties, a slight decrease from the prior month. 

REALTORS^® averaged 1.7 offers per transaction in September, relatively flat from 1.6 in August. Nearly 22% stated their clients received offers above the listing price, unchanged from a month ago.  

Sellers 

Virginia REALTORS^® reported a slight increase in seller activity from the previous month. The Seller Activity Index climbed to 45 in September, up from 41 in August. In September, about 16% of REALTORS^® said seller activity in their area was high to very high, while 25% described it as low to very low.  

Obstacles  

Buyers 

The Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to help curb inflation, putting upward pressure on mortgage rates. Many REALTORS^® have already seen the effects on their clients. About 33% cited high mortgage rates as the primary challenge, while roughly 5% said clients struggle to save for a down payment. The survey also found that 9% of REALTORS^® see limited housing choices as a major hurdle. A notable number of respondents said their buyer clients struggled to find a home within budget. 

Sellers 

About 19% of survey respondents said their seller clients were hesitant to sell in September because they had low interest rates on their current homes. Another 5% said limited inventory made it difficult to find suitable properties, while nearly 9% pointed to rising home prices as the main barrier to selling. Many REALTORS^® noted that their clients are often dealing with a combination of these challenges.  

Pending Sales Activity 

Recent data show that Virginia recorded 8,346 pending sales in August, which is 265 fewer than a year ago, marking a 3.1% decline. While most pending sales close successfully, some are delayed or fall through for various reasons. In the September survey, 316 Virginia real estate agents reported having at least one seller client with a purchase agreement; 77 of those deals did not close as planned. Respondents identified the main reasons contracts fell through.  

About 47% cited inspection issues, around 18% said their clients couldn’t sell their homes on schedule, and nearly 29% reported mortgage approval delays. Additionally, nearly 8% encountered title problems, while 6% said their clients lost their jobs or faced financial difficulties.   

Reasons For Selling 

Our survey revealed the main reasons sellers are putting their homes on the market in Virginia, according to REALTORS^®. Around 28% of REALTORS^® said their clients are relocating out of state in September, while 13% said they plan to move elsewhere in Virginia. Another 19% reported clients looking to downsize locally, and 12% said clients are seeking larger homes nearby. Finally, about 8% of agents noted that their clients are selling a second property this month.  

 Market Outlook 

Current economic conditions continue to leave REALTORS^® uncertain about future buyer activity, with the 3-month index outlook falling for the fourth consecutive month. The index measures REALTORS^®’ expectations for market activity over the next three months and dropped to 25 in September from 37 in August. Around 5% of respondents expect buyer activity to increase in their local markets, while 55% anticipate a sharp decline. 

In September, the Seller Activity Outlook Index for the upcoming three months dropped to 44 from 46 the previous month. Around 13% of Virginia REALTORS^® expect higher seller activity in the next quarter, while another 25% anticipate a decline from October through December. REALTORS^® also have predictions for home prices over the next three months: approximately 12% expect prices to rise, 24% believe they will stay steady, and 58% forecast a decrease.

Virginia REALTORS^® Confidence Survey: 2026 Highlights

A An index greater than 50 indicates more respondents reported the level of activity as “high to very high” than reported the level of activity as “low to very low.”

B An index greater than 50 indicates more respondents expect future activity to be “strong” than expected future activity to be “weak.”

A note about surveys: This is not a randomized sample survey of Virginia REALTORS^® members. However, the number of responses and the geographic coverage of respondents make it possible to draw conclusions about the opinions and expectations of Virginia REALTORS^®. The statistics from this survey have a margin of error of +/- 5.46 %.

Responses to our surveys are confidential. We do not look at individual responses but rather report data in the aggregate.

For more information about Virginia’s housing market, check out our most recent home sales report, local housing market data.