REALTOR® Confidence Survey Results – October 28, 2026 – November 4, 2026

REALTORS® Expect Home Prices to Fall Due To Elevated Mortgage Rates

By Abel Opoku-Adjei
Research Associate, Virginia REALTORS®

Each month, the Virginia REALTORS® Confidence Survey gathers important information from REALTORS® on local housing markets based on their experiences with real estate transactions in the prior month. This data provides a real-time look at housing market conditions. This month’s Confidence Survey was conducted between October 28th, 2026, and November 4th, 2026, and reflects Virginia’s housing market conditions in October 2026. A total of 489 Virginia REALTORS® members responded to the survey, including 337 who participated in a home sales transaction in the past month.

Current Market Conditions

Buyers

According to respondents, the October survey report showed that buyer activity declined again from the previous month. The buyer activity index was 19 in October, down from 24 in September. About 4% of respondents said buyer activity in their local markets was “high” or “very high,” while 65% described it as “low” or “very low.”

chart 1

Results From Virginia REALTORS® Confidence Survey

In October, approximately 32% of respondents reported that their most recent transaction involved a first-time homebuyer, unchanged from the previous month. Approximately 22% completed all-cash transactions, an increase of 4 percentage points from 18% in October. Approximately 21% of REALTORS® handled transactions involving non-primary residences, such as rental properties, second homes, or vacation homes, an increase of 4 percentage points from the previous month.

REALTORS® averaged 2 offers per transaction in October, a slight uptick from 1.7 in September. Nearly 17% reported that their clients received offers above the listing price, down from 22% the previous month.

Sellers

Virginia REALTORS® reported a slight decline in seller activity from a month earlier. The Seller Activity Index dropped to 41 in October, down from 45 in September. Nearly 16% of October survey respondents said seller activity in their area was high to very high, while 31% said it was low to very low.

Obstacles

Buyers

The Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to help curb inflation, putting upward pressure on mortgage rates. Many realtors are already seeing the impact on their clients. About 43% cited high mortgage rates as their biggest challenge, while roughly 2% said clients are having trouble saving for a down payment. The survey also found that 10% of REALTORS® consider limited housing choices a major hurdle. Many respondents also shared that their buyer clients are struggling to find a home within budget.

chart 2

Results From Virginia REALTORS® Confidence Survey

Sellers

About 21% of survey respondents said their seller clients were hesitant to sell in October because they had low interest rates on their current homes. Another 5% said limited inventory made it difficult to find suitable properties, while nearly 12% pointed to rising home prices as the main barrier to selling. Many realtors noted that their clients are often dealing with a combination of these challenges.

chart 3

Results From Virginia REALTORS® Confidence Survey

Pending Sales Activity

Recent data show Virginia recorded 7,421 pending sales in September, which is 1,241 fewer than a year earlier, a 14.3% decline. Although most pending sales close successfully, some are delayed or fall through for various reasons. In the October survey, 252 Virginia real estate agents reported having at least one seller client with a purchase agreement. Of those deals, 83 did not close as planned. Respondents identified the main reasons the contracts fell through.

About 30% mentioned inspection issues, while around 17% said their clients couldn’t sell their homes on schedule. Nearly 35% reported delays in mortgage approval. Additionally, almost 12% encountered title problems, and 10% said their clients had lost their jobs or faced financial difficulties.

Reasons For Selling

chart 4

Results From Virginia REALTORS® Confidence Survey

The October survey highlighted the main reasons sellers are listing their homes in Virginia. About 28% of REALTORS® said their clients were moving out of state, while 13% said they planned to relocate elsewhere in Virginia. Another 18% reported clients looking to downsize locally, and 9% said clients were seeking larger homes nearby. Finally, about 9% of agents noted that their clients were selling a second property that month.

Market Outlook

chart 5

Results From Virginia REALTORS® Confidence Survey

Current economic conditions continue to leave REALTORS® uncertain about future buyer activity, with the three-month index outlook declining for the fifth consecutive month. The index, which measures REALTORS®’ expectations for market activity over the next three months, fell to 23 in October from 25 in September. Approximately 5% of respondents expect buyer activity to increase in their local markets, while 59% anticipate a significant decline.

In October, the Seller Activity Outlook Index for the upcoming three months dropped to 40 from 44 a month ago. About 11% of Virginia REALTORS® expect higher seller activity next quarter, while another 31% anticipate a decline from October through December. REALTORS® also have predictions for home prices over the next three months: approximately 12% expect prices to rise, 21% believe they will stay steady, and 64% forecast a decrease.

Virginia REALTORS® Confidence Survey: 2026 Highlights

Key Indicators Jan 2026 Feb 2026 Mar 2026 Apr 2026 May 2026 June 2026 July
2026		 Aug 2026 Sep 2026 Oct 2026
Buyer Activity Indexa 44 44 52 54 42 42 38 28 24 19
Seller Activity Indexa 37 37 41 48 40 45 46 41 45 41
Buyer Activity Index: 3-Month Outlookb 70 66 57 60 46 42 41 37 25 23
Seller Activity Index: 3-Month Outlookb 60 58 54 56 45 48 51 46 44 30
Current Market Conditions                
First-time Homebuyers, as a Percent of All Sales 32 34 35 31 29 29 30 26 32 32
Cash Sales, as a Percent of All Sales 22 17 23 23 29 19  22 23 18 22
Sales as Non-Primary Residence, as a Percent of All Sales 21 19 15 18 15 19 22 15 17 21
Average Number of Offers, Most Recent Transaction 1.3 1.9 2.4 2.2 2 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.7 2
Market Outlook                    
Percent of Respondents Who Expect Strong Buyer Activity in 3 Months 44 41 31 32 19 11 12 7 4 5
Percent of Respondents Who Expect Strong Seller Activity in 3 Months 32 28 23 27 9 15 15 12 13 11
Percent of Respondents Who Expect Prices to Rise in 3 Months 44 41 41 44 31 31 36 20 12  

12

 
Percent of Respondents Who Expect Prices to Fall in 3 Months 20 18 23 21 26 30 27 44 58 64
Percent of Respondents Who Expect Prices to Remain Unchanged in 3 Months 32 37 28 29 36 34 37 30 24 21

A An index greater than 50 indicates more respondents reported the level of activity as “high to very high” than reported the level of activity as “low to very low.”
B An index greater than 50 indicates more respondents expect future activity to be “strong” than expected future activity to be “weak.”

A note about surveys: This is not a randomized sample survey of Virginia REALTORS® members. However, the number of responses and the geographic coverage of respondents make it possible to draw conclusions about the opinions and expectations of Virginia REALTORS®. The statistics from this survey have a margin of error of +/- 4.83 %.

Responses to our surveys are confidential. We do not look at individual responses but rather report data in the aggregate.

For more information about Virginia’s housing market, check out our most recent home sales report, local housing market data.

 

 

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