September 30, 2022 - Virginia REALTORS®
Each month, the Virginia REALTORS® Confidence Survey gathers insights from REALTORS® on local housing markets based on their experiences with real estate transactions in the prior month. This information provides a real-time look at housing market conditions. This month’s Confidence Survey was conducted between August 23rd and 29th, 2022, and reflects housing market conditions in Virginia in August 2022. A total of 700 Virginia REALTORS® members responded to the survey, including 557 who had participated in a home sales transaction in the prior 30 days.
Current Market Conditions
According to Virginia REALTORS®, buyer activity declined in July. The Buyer Activity Index for the month was 39 which is down from 43 in July, this is the lowest level since the REALTOR® Confidence Survey launched in July 2021. About 13% of REALTORS® rated the level of buyer activity in their local markets as “high” or “very high” and about 36% of REALTORS® rated buyer activity in their local market as “low” or “very low”.
Around 28% of buyers in August were first-time buyers, according to survey respondents, which is one percent lower from last month. It is the highest share for all cash purchases since the start of this survey in July 2021. In August, there were about 18% of non-primary residence sales (e.g., rental property, second home, vacation home), an increase of 1% from the previous month.
The average number of offers declined as sellers received fewer offers compared to July, according to REALTORS® responding to this month’s survey. Recent transactions received an average of 1.7 offers in August, slightly down from 1.8 offers on average in July. During the month of August about 42% of respondents stated that offers came in above listing price, which is a decline from last month.
Seller activity declined in August, according to Virginia REALTORS®. In August, the Seller Activity Index was 29, a fall from 33 in July. About 7% of respondents reported that seller activity was “high to very high” in their local market. About 49% of REALTORS® reported that seller activity was “low to very low,” an increase from last month when it was 42%.
Confidence in future home buyer activity grew for the third consecutive month but is still relatively low. This index gauges how REALTORS® think the market will be performing in three months’ time. The index increased to 42 up from 41 in July but it’s still about half the level from January’s high of 83. Only 12% of respondents indicated that they thought buyer activity would be strong three months from now in their local markets.
The Seller Activity Index: 3-Month Outlook moderated in August. The index dropped slightly this month to 39. Only 9% of Virginia REALTORS® reported that they think seller activity will be strong in three months, remaining unchanged from last month.
The share of survey respondents who expect prices to rise in their local markets in the next three months dropped again to the lowest level since we began tracking the survey in July 2021. Just over half of Virginia REALTORS® (51%) responding to the survey stated that they believed prices will begin to fall within the next few months. About a third of REALTORS® (30%) responding to the survey indicated that prices would remain the same for the next three months.
Virginia REALTORS® Confidence Survey: 2022 Highlights
|Buyer Activity Indexa||76||78||84||71||56||48||43||39|
|Seller Activity Indexa||20||19||20||26||33||31||33||29|
|Buyer Activity Index: 3-Month Outlookb||83||77||75||61||45||39||41||42|
|Seller Activity Index: 3-Month Outlookb||43||40||40||41||42||42||40||39|
|Current Market Conditions|
|First-time Homebuyers, as a Percent of All Sales||29||32||33||30||30||27||29||28|
|Cash Sales, as a Percent of All Sales||18||18||18||21||16||16||19||22|
|Sales as Non-Primary Residence, as a Percent of All Sales||21||14||16||19||15||15||17||18|
|Average Number of Offers, Most Recent Transaction||4.1||6.3||6.6||5.3||2.9||3.1||1.8||1.7|
|Percent of Respondents Who Expect Strong Buyer Activity in 3 Months||70||63||59||36||18||13||11||12|
|Percent of Respondents Who Expect Strong Seller Activity in 3 Months||19||20||18||16||14||12||9||9|
|Percent of Respondents Who Expect Prices to Rise in 3 Months||64||69||68||43||32||19||18||14|
|Percent of Respondents Who Expect Prices to Fall in 3 Months||7||8||10||25||33||49||53||51|
|Percent of Respondents Who Expect Prices to Remain Unchanged in 3 Months||26||21||18||28||32||30||26||30|
a An index greater than 50 indicates more respondents reported the level of activity as “high to very high” than reported the level of activity as “low to very low.”
b An index greater than 50 indicates more respondents expect future activity to be “strong” than expect future activity to be “weak”.
By Abel Opoku-Adjei
Research Associate, Virginia REALTORS®
A note about surveys: This is not a randomized sample survey of Virginia REALTORS® members. However, the number of responses and the geographic coverage of respondents make it possible to draw conclusions about the opinions and expectations of Virginia REALTORS®. These statistics from this survey have a margin of error of +/- 3%.
Responses to our surveys are confidential. We do not look at individual responses but rather report data in the aggregate.
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